AltEnToday

This is the second in a 3-part series on the Solar Power 2008 Conference & Expo in San Diego, California in October. Read part 1 here!

Conference Session: CEO Panel
Kerry Dolan, Lyndon Rive, Jim Rodgers, Mike Ahearn, Santiago Seage
This session dealt with the overall industry and some of the challenges it faces in the future.

Each of the CEO’s at the stage brought with them different experiences from their own solar businesses, including utility-grade, commercial-grade, consumer-grade, and international development of the solar market. Of course, one of the pressing issues mentioned was the current financial market meltdown. For many homeowners and businesses, PPA’s (mentioned earlier) will provide a way to ensure stability in the market without the burden of a large initial capital outlay. Distributed ownership between building owners, third-party financial institutions, government, and utilities may be increasing to distribute the cost of capital. Additionally, the industry needs more skilled workers. Even the best installation crews working as 3 man teams can only install about 30kw per month; meaning a lot of installers need to be trained and deployed to the field. The experience curve is improving installation times, and again standardization of equipment and processes may help alleviate some of these burdens. At the same time, the slowing economy may provide an inhibitor on the need for large-scale baseload power facilities like coal and nuclear, and may also stagnate the willingness of utilities to invest in natural-gas fired “peaker” plants that provide greater-than-baseload power generation. Solar is a natural fit in this market condition because it can be installed in modules and segments, and as soon as a module is put in to place, it is already earning income. This means that utilities striving to meet the slowing growth of demand for power might install, say, a 10-megawatt solar installation that could have a maximum capacity for 100mw+ of power. As demand is realized, supply can increase relatively effortlessly.

Other emerging trends will impact the solar and renewable power industries. One of the dominant ones (something that was mentioned not just in this session) was the need to self-police the industry. The public needs to trust solar companies, and as the market grows, firms must be careful not to over-promise and under-deliver. It only takes one bad firm to create a media or community outrage. Also, as new technology comes to the homes, specifically plug-in electric vehicles, homeowners will likely see their power bill double. This may provide the mental reinforcement for homeowners to purchase solar to offset some of these costs.

Conference Session: CEO Panel 2 – Driving Down Costs
Martin Heming, Matt Cheney, Jeannine Sargent, Anton Milner
Similar to the previous session, this one focused on trying to identify costs in the industry and at individual firms, and root out solutions for reducing them.

Unfortunately I didn’t get the chance to see this entire session, but there were some good nuggets that I was able to grab from it while I was there. Perhaps the most prevalent part of the discussion was focused on the current utility grid and the costs and losses inherent in trying to work within its framework. New infrastructure will be made necessary by the driving economic and political forces at work to provide greater flexibility and reduce the chances for brownouts and blackouts. This will require the development and investment of “smart grid” technology that will use real time information technologies to allow facilities on the grid to throttle up and down with greater effectiveness.

Another amusing tidbit was the notion that financiers across the world still view solar as some sort of “new” technology, even though the fundamentals have been in place for 30-50 years! We’re a factor of 2 away from being completely cost competitive with essentially every major energy source presently known, and industry efficiency improves by 5%+ per year, meaning that within 8-10 years solar will be cost competitive with nearly everything on the market, in almost all marketplaces. Concentrated solar electricity combined with innovations in electricity and energy storage (such as heated salts that retain their heat even overnight and can be used to create steam to power turbines) are very close to widespread viability. However, as a darker note, the current cost-of-capital in the solar market is estimated at $0.70-$1.00 greater than it was 2 years ago (before the financial crisis / credit collapse), which is distributed across the value chain. This means that the industry must work even harder to maintain the current momentum in its favor.

Conference Session: Workforce Development: What is needed and who is doing it
Jerry Ventre, Rebecca Eaton, Jeff Wolfe, John Carrese, Joseph Sarubbi
This session was designed to provide information for businesses to learn about where new industry employees may come from and how to develop a better workforce industry-wide.

The majority of this session was spent trying to discuss two main points – industry certifications and standardization (again) as well as the case of the Hudson Valley Community College solution which was implemented in Hudson Valley, New York. Some statistics were provided early on, such as the estimate that there are over 770 solar firms in California, employing over 17,000 people presently. Colleges need to identify those students with the aptitude and desire to be involved in the industry, and provide specific training for those individuals. Rebecca Eaton is the chairwoman of NABCEP, the North American Board of Certified Energy Practitioners, and she provided some summary information about their certification programs for installers of roof-mounted PV (photovoltaic) and thermal systems. Finally, Joe Sarubbi shared his story of implementing a New York state mandated grant for educating renewable energy workers at the Hudson Valley Community College. He pointed out that there was strong industry support for the program, which allowed them to continue to build the program, as well as find employment for nearly every graduate. He also pointed out that due to the success, a new facility called TEC-SMART is going to begin construction soon which will allow them to educate and train energy workers for a wide range of fields, all with their own dedicated facility.